Game Theory: Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun? A Final Analysis.
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There has been a controversy brewing on the Minecraft side of BGfix centered around well known Minecraft creator Dream. He's been accused of faking his speedrun and it has caused a lot of stir. I'm not here to point fingers or accuse anyone. What I'm doing today, Theorists, is going over the facts of this situation and why it is a lot more complicated than people are making it out to be.
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#Dream #DreamSpeedrun #Speedrun #DreamSMP #Minecraft #MinecraftTheory #MinecraftLore #MinecraftUpdate #MatPat #Theory #GameTheory
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Writers: Matthew Patrick and Justin Kuiper
Editors: Dan "Cybert" Seibert, Alex "Sedge" Sedgwick, Forrest Lee, Tyler Mascola, and Koen Verhagen
Assistant Editor: AlyssaBeCrazy
Sound Editor: Yosi Berman

  • A FO
    A FO

    Everyone says matpat didn't give answers. He did, he's just being unbiased and analytical. After all, no one knows the truth except for Dream. We can't just judge someone based on pure speculation. The rng evidence is nowhere close to be a solid proof. The 1.16 world record is heavily rng involved as well, indeed lots of them also look too lucky to me, but of course people love to chose to attack a celebrity instead. That being said, just stop involve yourself into stupid drama and controversies. All these accusations and criticisms are dumb.

    • morbideddie

      There is not reasonable way for dream to have gotten that luck outside of cheating. The top runs are all lucky but dreams luck is an entirely different magnitude. If the entire world started speedrunning it would take millions of years for anyone to get this lucky. There is no way you can understand the numbers and not think dream cheated.

  • dolphinsniper

    So.... am I one of the only people that actually enjoyed this video? Like, I feel like he has a point about the lottery nature of the newest Minecraft Update and the Barter System specifically. (Though I've heard that people have actually found a way to control it now?). As well as how different assumptions and different decisions made in regards to data points of statistical analysis can greatly change the numbers involved? Looking at the comments, it sure feels that way.

  • Bradyn Rex
    Bradyn Rex

    No he did not fake it

  • GooseSause

    Can we all agree that the dislikes are from Dream stans?

  • TheLuchaKabuto

    “Ive probably put more lore into Minecraft than Mojang has” Well yes, but actually yes

  • No Sleep Jones
    No Sleep Jones


  • Bruh

    I need my 23:30 minutes back please

  • Yisrael Browne
    Yisrael Browne

    You missed an opportunity to use the dream speed run music for this video.

  • Varg Kelan
    Varg Kelan

    "Man, I want to capitalize on the Dream drama, but jeez, I don't want to offend my friend and source of stream revenue Dream, so I'll dance around the issue for twenty minutes and then condemn speedrunning in general without giving a definitive statement." You're a transparent hypocrite, MatPat. I just hope that people stop seeing *through* you, and starting seeing *into* you.

  • Gapple Man
    Gapple Man

    I trust Dream yes he cheated but i think he so good a Man (I'm not a side account of Dream) :)

  • Marconius

    Plenty of speedrun games feature randomness at a high level, whether it stems from physics interactions, AI behaviors or something else. As a result, speedrunners spend ridiculous amounts of time running the level over and over, not necessarily to improve their skill, but simply to get that lucky constellation of circumstances. Since speedrunners at the top level all have roughly the same skill, the one that gets lucky ON TOP OF THAT will be the one with the record, forcing all players to grind for that bit of luck. This applies to Minecraft as well. The Piglin bartering might seem like just a slot machine, but there are other factors like where the End Portal spawns or where you come up when coming back from the Nether, etc. Yes, you can mitigate these to some degree with player skill, but if the world record is a similarly skilled player AND they get lucky (because they've been trying over and over), they're going to get a better time.

  • fasthi300

    I saw mr beast in the background lol

  • Bastien Clarke
    Bastien Clarke

    (I got the Latex ref, good times.)

  • Moon Worx
    Moon Worx

    I think dream cheated his speedrun

  • Perro

    Short answer: Yes

  • Muffin Thug
    Muffin Thug


  • DJBatmanGold

    Dream became famous over night. He made a couple videos, and then boom. 20 million subscribers in a year and a half. It's not like cheating is gonna do anything to his ad revenue.

  • Lucid Son4r
    Lucid Son4r

    Me beast😂😂😂😂

  • Hsueh-Chen wu
    Hsueh-Chen wu


  • Diamond TDDDylan
    Diamond TDDDylan

    Pov: your a dream fan

  • Selina Houslay
    Selina Houslay

    Dreams about teeth if you do he'd be on top of the leaderboard

    • Just_A_Black_And_Grey_Campfire

      Wtf are you trying to say? I didn't understand anything you said.

  • Arszlan Kendi-Szakacs
    Arszlan Kendi-Szakacs

    1:40 Is that a starcraft broodwar marine assultrifle?

    • Just_A_Black_And_Grey_Campfire



    Matpat knows more math than many of those "math professors" that gave their answer

    • Leonard

      @SITO11MAXI The math has been done though, and has already taken into account these variants. Multiple accredited mathematicians did the math and all came to the same conclusion that he cheated. I recommend you watch these vids, because they explain all of this way better than Mat did, and actually gave an in-depth analysis to the math.

    • SITO11MAXI

      @Leonard but the math can't be actually done because of all the variants

    • Leonard

      There were so many other mathematicians that did such better analysis than this video. All Mat did was throw a few theories up; he didn't even show any math. Meanwhile, these other guys actually do the math and explain it to you. One even ran simulations to try to replicate the scenario. Mat's vid is really so lackluster.

  • JauJau

    Wtf happened in this video

  • ljummingen

    Yes, Dream cheated.


    Matpat I have been watching you since the start of the FNAF theories it would be a DREAM if you could respond.

  • Томат Огородов
    Томат Огородов

    Ооо повезло повезло

  • Julie Dombroski
    Julie Dombroski

    Are you Theodd1sout

  • Rafael Belda
    Rafael Belda


    • Rafael Belda
      Rafael Belda

      @Sun-Moon-Dragon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    • Sun-Moon-Dragon

      nobody cares

  • xX夜神月Vøid GalaxyXx
    xX夜神月Vøid GalaxyXx

    I mean showing his work kinda means he’s honest? I’m really not sure and am super late to that thing but I’m neutral

  • Grievous

    Honestly, you dont seem to understand speedruns. Its a hobby for most. They do it for fun. They like the luck. You pass it off as the lottery, but I could get the perfect seed and get last place.

  • ReelVonic

    For those who want the answer: He doesn’t give a answer

    • Just_A_Black_And_Grey_Campfire

      FOr htose who want the answer he cheated

    • Grievous

      I could of just read the top comment but ok

  • Cookies Revolution
    Cookies Revolution

    0:14 "today I am gonna but EVERYTHING in a store including MatPat and whoever this guy

  • Bittersweet

    MatPat should have known from Undertale not to undertake such a controversial topic. The reason there's a controversy is because the gray area is shunted into a society that only sees things in black and white. He couldn't give an answer because there is none. Luck is in so many shades of gray the novel was split into 8 sequels, it is indifferent. There is no "Dream did or did not cheat." We will never know unless he comes clean, but if he is telling the truth and he did not, people still won't believe him because his response will remain the exact same as it is now, and see where the current answer got him.

  • BronyGamer

    so did mattpat do the usual "The subject has been resolved already, and i will contribute nothing to it but will make a 20 video out of it to get add revenue"?

  • Marsted R
    Marsted R

    This video really doesn't get enough flak.

  • Revolutionary Cinema Productions
    Revolutionary Cinema Productions

    Ok but matpat where is the answer? I cant help but feel he may not have cheated but u promised an answer and u didnt give one... Tf

  • Kobe Noah Rocha
    Kobe Noah Rocha

    Stop this conclusion things, I give you an idea to know wether this guy is cheating or not. JUST WATCH THEM PERSONALY

  • lucky 81
    lucky 81

    In the Super Mario tennis game. It is sibling rivalry.

  • ꧁Iron III oxide꧂
    ꧁Iron III oxide꧂

    I just understand the binomial distribution stuff but the other stuff is harder

  • S u g a r C h e r r i
    S u g a r C h e r r i

    0:52 Only people who are dumb feel the pain💀🤚

  • NotToo Straight
    NotToo Straight

    Yes he cheated, it is statistically impossible for his runs to happen. You can still watch Dream, it’s not like all he does is speed runs

  • Kleber Sousa
    Kleber Sousa

    Wow, this is such a great first impression on a channel! Nonsensical rambling, almost zero actual research or explanation on the situation and on top of that, you do your best to make a pro dream video while denying it's a pro dream video. At least be a man and admit it.

  • Octavia Osborn
    Octavia Osborn

    "If you've ever tried to use word... It DoN't WoRk!" Me: "Uhhh? Insert tab then symbol?"

  • Richard Runge
    Richard Runge

    Dream hat nicht geschummelt nicht

  • Q u e e n i e C a r t o o n
    Q u e e n i e C a r t o o n

    I just remembered big vibe block Fossils existed, does anyone know what they came from?

  • Justin Z
    Justin Z

    Pathetic apologia for a cheater. Extremely disappointing.

  • Freddie Flanders
    Freddie Flanders


  • L Train45
    L Train45

    You are everything I hate

  • Squiggs 【Glitches - ROM Hacks - Speedruns】
    Squiggs 【Glitches - ROM Hacks - Speedruns】

    This is the Game Theorist channel that everyone always talks about? So they just trash things they don't understand and waste a lot of time trying to be funny while saying nothing real? You literally said "Are we sure that [Minecraft] should have a speedrun board in the first place?", what the hell are you talking about? Of course they should, all games get to have one and Minecraft is like the most popular game ever. Just because you personally don't think luck-based runs are fun to speedrun doesn't mean it's they're not fun to speedrun and shouldn't exist. What a dumb video. Apparently I missed out on nothing important by not watching this channel as a kid.

    • Leonard

      Yeah; I used to watch Game Theory, but I recently unsubbed because it's just butchering drama where they don't need to be; not to mention the obnoxious amounts of clickbait.

    • Drjones_1968

      People already found a way around this without removing Piglins. Just switch quadrants and a bastion with enough gold should spawn. Matpat’s conclusion is to change the rules because he did not try to find a solution. What a shitty video.

  • Alex

    Just letting you know he wouldn’t hide his answer like this if he didn’t think his friend cheated

    • Divyansh Aggarwal
      Divyansh Aggarwal

      thats what happened with all of dreams friends. in the tweets where dream defended his run, his friends always replied with something like 'yeah u cant do this sort of stuff'. but once allegations slowly turned to reality, those comments stopped coming

  • Jim Ryan
    Jim Ryan

    I remember one time in a lesson in school taking about statistics the teacher mentioned the whole flipping a coins 10 times and getting heads 10 times in a row, so I started flipping a coin and much to my dismay I got 9 heads in a row. I will never forget my disappointment

  • RiderLPI

    0:14 da frik?

  • Zuwaria Sarafine
    Zuwaria Sarafine

    60+ Heads

  • Fryzzle the Pork
    Fryzzle the Pork

    Scripted or real still awesome

  • Joushua Ollivierre
    Joushua Ollivierre


    • Birb

      Either provide evidence or go away Stan

  • DexPeel

    I'm happy that even after all these years, Matpat still is raking in millions.

  • Tyumer Syuleyman
    Tyumer Syuleyman

    flipping a coin 10 times and getting 7 heads

  • Dr. Fatema Akter Doly
    Dr. Fatema Akter Doly

    Lol dream never cheated

    • Birb

      1 in 7.49999 trillion isn't suspicious to you

  • Joseph Finley
    Joseph Finley

    The historical cheek recurrently dislike because copper frustratingly record at a flagrant flower. eager, impartial environment

  • NoobMaster1278

    i just got into high school in australia and i love physics

  • Sans Hanaragi
    Sans Hanaragi

    Matpat I have a theory about on Final fantasy 7 They can't used the phoenix down Because it's in the game not on the real story and the phoenix they can't use it maybe it's just a replica of phoenix and they can't revive aerith Or maybe the phoenix is just a clone Or in a stone that make the phoenix Power weaker or maybe the phoenix doesn't wanna revive anyone because the phoenix imprisonment

    • Sans Hanaragi
      Sans Hanaragi

      On the stone Watch the final fantasy movie Search (Advent children) This is the movie of it watch it matpat

  • Gaming Geckos
    Gaming Geckos

    For people wanting to get an actual ANSWER about this, go check out Stand Up Math's video about Dream.

  • Gaming Geckos
    Gaming Geckos

    This man really spend over 20 minutes dancing around the actual answer and changing the topic, huh?

  • F1r3r3d

    The applejacks and Froot Loops 😂

  • Declan Ross
    Declan Ross

    Unrelated but do think matpat really understands bhoping because I think that if he doesn't that's really funny but doesn't matter.

  • kamal khanduja
    kamal khanduja

    People who want the pop quiz answer: It's the left one :)

  • OurShadow

    Ffs matpat you don't even answer it properly and all you do nowadays is drag in viewers. ESPECIALLY with the 'undertale 2' instance, Toby Fox had to tell you that you were wrong. Used to watch you all the time man, but things changed.

  • Antonie Režná
    Antonie Režná

    Great work! I really appreciate you teaching us new things ☺️, I am 13 and this is my favourite channel, and you bring new motivation to learn and don't give up learning, when you're teacher's kinda suck...

  • bruh7


  • Alvin Alfie
    Alvin Alfie

    I watch these videos and get straight A's Thanks mr fun teacherman

  • Richie \
    Richie \

    My teacher used this video as a review on statistics, i love Mat Pat


    It’s kinda silly now that I know that he didn’t fake his speed run like now a days mat just jumps on the newest trends ( like hating on dream ) without doing anything math.

    • Kal wardin
      Kal wardin

      Did you do the math? Btw, the verdict has already been passed.. so, no need to worry. Dream cheated.

    • Jonah Clements
      Jonah Clements

      You know Dream still cheated right? His rebuttal was disproven.

  • Blukester

    Sorry but I’ll always hate dream for endorsing the flow squid

  • Johnwel Enciso
    Johnwel Enciso


  • Kataklysymuka Ganimosika
    Kataklysymuka Ganimosika

    3:26 Very Common Meme

  • Kataklysymuka Ganimosika
    Kataklysymuka Ganimosika

    Matpat’s IQ to me : 219

  • Jumpy Animations
    Jumpy Animations


  • John David San luis
    John David San luis

    matpat new minecraft theory suggestion: soul sand because i think it's the key on the other theories or the missing piece on the lore

  • Sorceress Fire
    Sorceress Fire

    All of these people complaining about how he didn’t actually give an answer obviously didn’t pay attention. He made it very clear that there is no way to actually clear cut say he did or didn’t cheat. It’s like a crime investigation. You can present a lot of evidence, but that doesn’t guarantee that they actually did or didn’t do it. There will always be probable loop holes and ideas that challenge your evidence. There is always a possibility that you are wrong. He didn’t want to give us an answer that could be wrong because no one can say that there is no way he didn’t cheat, but they can’t say he did.

    • Leonard

      The way the game is coded doesn't account for the luck that Dream got. RNG is random, but it's still a set coded function within the game, meaning that it won't spike in luck so consistenly like it did for Dream. There's no way the original settings of Minecraft can function in that way, unless modded. Karl Jobst did a video on this (I recommend watching it), and he ran millions of simulations on the original MC settings, and could not get even close to the amount of luck Dream got. It's so clearly evident he cheated and is lying about it. There comes a point where you need to believe the unlikeliness of the numbers, or you might as well throw out all systems that function heavily on the basis of stastistics, such as science, math, court systems, etc., because we can't assume anything is correct, by your logic.

    • Drjones_1968

      @Jonah Clements Agreed, you have to draw the line. You wouldn’t be able to reasonably discredit most speedruns because they were theoretically possible in the RNG glitchless catergory.

    • Jonah Clements
      Jonah Clements

      With the statistics we are dealing with, if you don't accept the fact that Dream didn't cheat because "tHeRe's StiLl a cHaNcE hE DidN't cHeAt," you have to think literally everything that is ever said is true, since there is always a chance that it is.

    • Drjones_1968

      Yeah, but it’s still a shitty video. He said we should change the rules of Speedrunning instead of proper thinking or basic research. He should already know people found a solution to piglins in Speedrun through ingenuity instead of complaining about RNG. This was such a trainwreck of a video. Should’ve just ended it with no conclusion.

  • the gamer yepez
    the gamer yepez

    Mmm dream thint cheat cause that has happend Abit of times it happend yo me

    • Drjones_1968

      @Birb This isn’t Reddit, my guy.

    • Birb

      R/Ihadastroke Also don't like your own comment

  • A

    plot twist : Dream friend with Technoblade and piglin give more drop rate.

  • Milk Straw
    Milk Straw

    I don't know what to say...

  • Kayson McLeod
    Kayson McLeod

    7 out of 10

  • Kayson McLeod
    Kayson McLeod

    And there's film watching to because of film theory

  • Kayson McLeod
    Kayson McLeod

    So why is there so much Austin lately

  • Knight

    i think we can all agree that dream suckts

    • Grievous

      @Frenchyboy I mean, we have to understand. The internet is not only for english speakers, and its hard to write on a phone. Also, the person writing this, but a youtube comment isnt what should define their intelligence. They spelled one thing wrong my guy.

    • Frenchyboy

      @Birb thats not what I mean, I didnt say I did or didn't like him, I meant that not everyone will agree.

    • Birb

      Well he cheated but his content is likeable to some people

    • Frenchyboy

      Yikes, that shows how intelligent you are.

  • Chaos Casserole
    Chaos Casserole

    Role with the punchhs

  • Polite Gordon Ramsay
    Polite Gordon Ramsay

    MatPat didn’t give an answer but as a dream stan I can say the answer is yes, he did. There’s no way he seriously got THAT lucky. Dream is trying to BS his way out of it which is fine, but everything points to him cheating.

  • Trevor TM
    Trevor TM

    Old MatPat isn't cringey MatPat, Old MatPat is classic MatPat 😎

  • Imperial

    What software is your video created in? Adobe After Effects?

  • Marvin Anderson
    Marvin Anderson

    I just wanna know how many runs happen in between those 6 play through some. Like out of all the runs he had in between those 6 had that luck. I can believe that?

    • Leonard

      I think it amounted to like ~200 runs or something, so like maybe ~33 per stream, all with this consistent luck. There's no way he could get luck like that normally.

  • Penny T
    Penny T

    Your roooooooouuuuuuuuuuuud 😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠😠

  • Brendan Johnson
    Brendan Johnson

    10:13 Yay Freddy Plushie!

  • Muffin Head
    Muffin Head


  • Gamers Unite
    Gamers Unite


  • Adam Naser
    Adam Naser

    I know dream lied cuz there is a person that is playing for him he said

  • X Black X
    X Black X

    Hello! I just wanted to say that there is a theory about the game Genshin impact and the two twins. Someone says that one of the twins had been taken 500 years in the future while the other one stayed at the same timeline when they got separated. We don’t know much and I’d really like to see you make a theory vid about it!

  • HeyIt’sAustin

    Hey, I watched this and when you brought up the divorce rates in Maine I was shocked because I live in there.

  • Iwan Evans
    Iwan Evans

    If you put a immortal monkey in front of a keyboard they will eventually beat the Minecraft speed run world record